Bitcoin and Its Bullish Phases

Feb 22, 2023

Is the bull market upon us?

This article echoes the one addressing the topic of BTC and available UTXO, which can be found here.

The previous article aimed to highlight that the UTXO indicated that the price of Bitcoin was in a bullish period.

Today’s article seeks to demonstrate that Bitcoin experiences repeating bullish cycles, although, as is customary to say, past performance is not indicative of future results.

This article is likely to please enthusiasts of technical analysis as it relies solely on the Bitcoin price chart.

Furthermore, this technical analysis exclusively focuses on yearly candlesticks.


Figure 1: Chandelles annualisées du Bitcoin

At first glance, it is easy to recognize the three red candlesticks indicating the decline in the price of Bitcoin. The subsequent green candlesticks are also easily identifiable.

bitcoin évolution en log

Figure 2: Bitcoin Price Evolution in USD (Log Scale)

Figure 2 (log scale) highlights a significant regularity, up until today, in the behavior of Bitcoin price.
It is evident that after each annual red candlestick indicating a price decline, strong increases follow. And by “strong increases,” it means that the price advancements of Bitcoin are unmatched in the traditional finance world.

We have the following price advancements:

Period Price progression Highest price reached
(over the period)
2011-2013 52 287.39% $1 163
2014-2017 7 051.27% $19 666
2018-2021 3 450.50% $69 000
2022-…. 63.25% (running) $25 270 (running)

What can be expected?

According to a purely chartist analysis, it would be reasonable to anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, while acknowledging that the future is inherently uncertain.

Furthermore, based on chartist analysis, it could be considered reasonable to accumulate Bitcoin in order to potentially benefit from a substantial increase in its price, if the trend were to confirm.

If we combine this purely technical analysis (study of the Bitcoin price chart over time) with the analysis of UTXO  (ici), it appears that the time is ripe for a new upward movement in the Bitcoin price.

Note: Il est important de se rappeler que le trading est une activité risquée et qu’il est important de se rappeler que les pertes sont possibles. Il est donc important de bien comprendre les risques associés au trading et de ne pas investir de l’argent qu’on ne peut se permettre de perdre. Il est aussi important de se rappeler que les performances passées ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs. Il est donc important d’avoir une stratégie de gestion de risque appropriée en place et de ne pas se fier uniquement à un seul indicateur pour prendre des décisions d’investissement.

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