Is the bull market upon us?
This article echoes the one addressing the topic of BTC and available UTXO, which can be found here.
The previous article aimed to highlight that the UTXO indicated that the price of Bitcoin was in a bullish period.
Today’s article seeks to demonstrate that Bitcoin experiences repeating bullish cycles, although, as is customary to say, past performance is not indicative of future results.
This article is likely to please enthusiasts of technical analysis as it relies solely on the Bitcoin price chart.
Furthermore, this technical analysis exclusively focuses on yearly candlesticks.
Figure 1: Chandelles annualisées du Bitcoin
At first glance, it is easy to recognize the three red candlesticks indicating the decline in the price of Bitcoin. The subsequent green candlesticks are also easily identifiable.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Price Evolution in USD (Log Scale)
Figure 2 (log scale) highlights a significant regularity, up until today, in the behavior of Bitcoin price.
It is evident that after each annual red candlestick indicating a price decline, strong increases follow. And by “strong increases,” it means that the price advancements of Bitcoin are unmatched in the traditional finance world.
We have the following price advancements:
|Period||Price progression||Highest price reached
(over the period)
|2011-2013||52 287.39%||$1 163|
|2014-2017||7 051.27%||$19 666|
|2018-2021||3 450.50%||$69 000|
|2022-….||63.25% (running)||$25 270 (running)|
What can be expected?
According to a purely chartist analysis, it would be reasonable to anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, while acknowledging that the future is inherently uncertain.
Furthermore, based on chartist analysis, it could be considered reasonable to accumulate Bitcoin in order to potentially benefit from a substantial increase in its price, if the trend were to confirm.
If we combine this purely technical analysis (study of the Bitcoin price chart over time) with the analysis of UTXO (ici), it appears that the time is ripe for a new upward movement in the Bitcoin price.